"A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings." Earl Wilson, NLDS Game 3.

The NLDS series between the Cardinals and the Braves has been nothing if not fascinating. The post-season, where every single decision can drastically flip the balance of power, provides us with yet another case study. On Sunday, during game 3 of the NL division series, the St-Louis Cardinals who up until the top of the 9th inning, had managed to hold on to a 1-0 lead, took a decision that would see the Braves scores three runs to give Atlanta a crucial win, and the series lead. Veteran pitcher Adam Wainwright (7.2 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 8 SO) produced a clean sheet with a complete shut out of the Braves during seven and two third innings, but was eventually pulled in favour of Andrew Miller.

Things however, took a turn for the worst when closer Carlos Martinez was brought into the game during the 9th inning. After surrendering a double to Josh Donaldson (who was subsequently pinch ran for by Billy Hamilton), Martinez managed to strike out both Markakis, and Hechavarria. For a small instant, it looked like the game could be wrapped up without a major blunder. All Martinez had to do was to get catcher Brian McCann out, and get the precious win.

However, Cardinals manager Mike Shildt then went to the mound, with two options for the closer: either face McCann, or intentionally walk him and face Dansby Swanson. They chose the latter. But, an RBI double by Swanson followed by a 2 RBI single by Duval later, and the Braves managed a rally that could very well have cost St-Louis their championship series ticket.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NOIjKlw3l5o

Now, when I saw this happening, a few questions sprung to my mind: “why would you put the go-ahead run on base?”, “Why would you rather face Dansby Swanson than Brian McCann?”;

Well to answer this, let’s look at the numbers shall we? With left handed batters hitting .260/.347/.402 and right handed batters .222/.288/.306 against Martinez, it seems logical that Mike Shildt would prefer to see his closer face a righty like Swanson, rather than a lefty. Both Martinez and Swanson posting rather underwhelming, albeit very similar, slashlines for the season (.249 / .323 / .412 and .251 / .325 / .422 respectively). So from a first quick look, the decision to intentionally walk McCann makes some sense.

What’s more, and as has been mentioned by Cardinals broadcasters Brian Anderson and Ron Darling multiple times; Dansby Swanson had been 0-8 against Carlos Martinez up to that point. But this is one of my pet peeves right here, post-season statistics. In a sport where trends are accumulated over years, discussing one month of data is equivalent to discussing trends early on during the regular season: meaningless.

In this case, Carlos Martinez had narrowly avoided blowing leads in previous games, but still looked shaky, all it took was one small mistake. So in a post-season context, where chaos reigns supreme not all decisions, sane as they might be, will produce the logical expected outcome.

Nonetheless, game 5 is around the corner, and promises to be an exciting end to an exciting series.